A new study led by researchers at the Paul H. O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs reveals that the expansion of utility-scale solar facilities on U.S. farmland is unlikely to significantly impact national crop production or commodity prices. The findings, based on rigorous county-level modeling, suggest that public concerns regarding solar energy’s threat to cost and food security are largely unsubstantiated by data.
The study, “Limited impact of solar energy expansion on agricultural production and crop prices in the United States,” was conducted by Professor Jerome Dumortier at IU Indianapolis and Assistant Professor Rafael Almeida at IU Bloomington and was published in Land Use Policy. The report found that even if 40 percent of future solar development is placed on cropland—matching historical patterns—price increases for major commodities would remain below 5.6 percent. This impact is approximately one-third of the long-term price estimates associated with biofuel production.
“The land area required for solar expansion is small relative to the total U.S. cropland area,” the researchers noted. “Although the concern is understandable, it is difficult to square with the data. Our agricultural land base is enormous and has seen declining acreage for decades due to massive productivity gains.”
Even under an aggressive, unlikely scenario where 80 percent of new solar projects occupy productive farmland, Dumortier and Almeida found that price increases stayed below 18.4 percent.
The project was sparked by a 2024 conference where public debate highlighted a growing tension: the perceived conflict between large-scale solar development and the preservation of productive farmland. To address this, the researchers used a partial equilibrium agricultural model to simulate “what-if” scenarios, replacing cropland with solar infrastructure to measure the ripple effects on maize, soybeans, and wheat.
The research highlights a critical shift in the energy landscape. As electricity demand rises—driven by data centers, manufacturing, and electric vehicles—solar provides a domestic energy source immune to global price swings and geopolitical instability.
For farmers, solar leasing offers a strategic advantage. Similar to how ethanol policy supported crop prices by creating new demand, solar leases provide stable, long-term income. This allows landowners to diversify revenue using land that market forces might otherwise pull out of production, all without compromising the broader food system.
As federal and local efforts to limit solar on farmland increase, this study provides a data-driven counter-perspective to a common line of thinking. Although the researchers emphasize that local community voices and careful planning remain vital, the evidence suggests that the “food versus fuel” debate regarding solar has featured more heat than light.
The team next plans to investigate how long-term trends—such as the rise of sustainable aviation fuels and the potential decline in ethanol demand—will further reshape the intersection of American food and energy production.